Tullow Oil

TLW · Main Market · Energy · mcap £141m · 10.6p

Tullow Oil produces oil and gas, now almost entirely from the Jubilee and TEN fields offshore Ghana. It has sold its Gabon and Kenya assets to focus on Ghana.

Target	Promise	Said	Status
2024
31 Dec 2024	Year-end 2024 net debt below $1.4bn and gearing about 1x	24 Jan 2024	✗ Missed
	“Year-end net debt expected to be less than $1.4 billion” Result Net debt at end 2024 was $1,452m, slightly above the target. “On track to reduce net debt to less than $1.4 billion and cash gearing of net debt to EBITDAX to c.1x at $80/bbl by the end of 2024.”16 May 2024 · AGM Trading Update “Net debt1 at year end reduced to $1,452 million (2023: $1,608 million); cash gearing of net debt1 to adjusted EBITDAX1 of 1.3 times (2023: 1.4 times)”25 Mar 2025 · Final Results
2025
2025	Generate about $800m free cash flow over 2023-2025 at $80/bbl	13 Nov 2023	✗ Missed · target changed
	“$800 million of free cash flow expected to be generated during 2023 to 2025” Result Later guidance cut 2024 free cash flow to $150-200m; actual 2024 was $156m and 2025 about $100m, so the cumulative target was not met. “On track to deliver targeted c.$800 million free cash flow over 2023 to 2025 period, with over $600 million free cash flow expected to be generated over 2024 to 2025 at $80/bbl.”6 Mar 2024 · Final Results “Free cash flow is expected to be $150-200 million, below previous guidance of $200-300 million due to timing of payments, namely the incremental Jubilee lifting now expected in early January 2025 and overdue gas payments from the Government of Ghana.”28 Nov 2024 · November Trading Update
31 Dec 2025	Refinance the capital structure during 2025	25 Mar 2025	✗ Missed
	“Refinancing of the Group's capital structure targeted during 2025, following repayment of the 2025 Notes in early March 2025.” Also stated 25 Sep 2025 Result Refinancing only completed on 24 April 2026. “27 April 2026 - Tullow Oil plc ("Tullow" or the "Company") is pleased to announce the successful completion of the refinancing transaction (the "Refinancing Transaction").”27 Apr 2026 · Refinancing Transaction successfully completed
Today · 11 Oct 2026
2026
31 Dec 2026	Deliver 2026 free cash flow of $70-175m (later $170-250m) at $70-100/bbl	28 Apr 2026	✗ Missed · target changed
	“we expect to deliver free cash flow of $70-175 million in 2026 at an oil price range of $70-100/bbl” Also stated 28 Sep 2026 Result Guidance raised to $170-250m in August 2026. “Full year free cash flow guidance has been upgraded to $170-250 million (previously $70-175 million) at $70-100/bbl, reflecting positive production performance, higher than expected oil price realisations (c.$93/bbl) through January to end of July and progress on recoverability of Government of Ghana receivables.”5 Aug 2026 · Trading Statement “As previously reported in August 2026, full year free cash flow guidance has been upgraded to $170-250 million at $70-100/bbl, reflecting positive production performance, higher than expected oil price realisations and progress on recovery of Government of Ghana receivables.”28 Sep 2026 · 2026 Half Year Results