Mobico Group

MCG · Main Market · Travel and Leisure · mcap £145m · 23.8p

Mobico runs buses, coaches and rail services, mainly in Spain and Morocco (ALSA), Germany, the UK and, until 2025, North America. It earns most of its income from long-term public transport contracts and coach ticket sales.

Target	Promise	Said	Status
2023
31 Dec 2023	FY2023 Adjusted EBIT of £175m-£185m.	20 Feb 2024	✗ Missed · target changed
	“The Board continues to expect Adjusted1 EBIT for FY 2023 to be within the range of £175m-£185m” Result Guidance cut to £160m-£175m in March 2024; outcome £168.6m. “Group Adjusted 1 Operating Profit \| £168.6m”22 Apr 2024 · Final Results
2024
30 Apr 2024	Publish FY2023 results in second half of April 2024.	25 Mar 2024	✓ Kept
	“the Group now expects to publish its FY2023 Results in the second half of April” Result Results published 22 April 2024. “Mobico Group PLC ("Mobico" or the "Group"): Results for the Full Year ended 31 December 2023”22 Apr 2024 · Final Results
30 Jun 2024	Recover North America operating days lost to weather by end of Q2 2024.	22 Apr 2024	✓ Kept
	“Operating days lost as a result of bad weather and the earlier than usual spring break are expected to be recovered by the end of the school year, i.e. in Q2 2024” Result FY24 profit guidance was held and delivered, implying recovery. “NA School Bus delivered a strong bid season with net routes won for the first time in a decade. And WDU delivered good growth in revenue and profits, despite reduced spending from one significant customer.”29 Apr 2025 · Final Results
2024	Start North America School Bus sale process in early 2024.	12 Oct 2023	✓ Kept
	“commenced preparations for a sale process in early 2024” Result Sale agreed April 2025 and completed July 2025. “Transaction follows a thorough process conducted since the Group announced its intention to prepare School Bus for sale in October 2023”25 Apr 2025 · Proposed Sale of North America School Bus “On 14 July 2025 the Transaction closed.”15 Jul 2025 · Completion of North America School Bus sale
31 Dec 2024	FY2024 Adjusted Operating Profit of £185m-£205m.	22 Apr 2024	✓ Kept
	“we are on-track to deliver FY 24 adjusted Operating Profit in the range of £185m to £205m” Also stated 21 Aug 2024 · 7 Nov 2024 Result FY24 adjusted operating profit was £187.7m. “FY 24 Adjusted Operating Profit in line with market guidance, growth of 11.3% to £187.7m”29 Apr 2025 · Final Results
31 Dec 2024	Deliver £40m savings in FY24 (£30m Accelerate 1.0, £10m 2.0) and £50m annualised thereafter.	21 Aug 2024	… In progress
	“FY 24 expected savings of £30m under Accelerate 1.0 and £10m under Accelerate 2.0” Also stated 7 Nov 2024 Result Not yet due.
31 Dec 2024	Reach 1,500 zero emission vehicles in service or on order by end 2024.	21 Aug 2024	… In progress
	“interim target of 1,500 ZEVs in service or on order by the end of 2024” Result Not yet due.
2025
31 Jul 2025	Complete School Bus sale by early Q3 2025.	19 May 2025	✓ Kept
	“Following completion, which is anticipated early in the third quarter of 2025, Mobico will have a refocussed portfolio with a stronger platform to de-lever” Result Completed 15 July 2025. “on 14 July 2025 the Transaction closed.”15 Jul 2025 · Completion of North America School Bus sale
31 Dec 2025	Deliver £25m debt reduction cash benefits in FY24 and at least £50m annualised from 2025.	21 Aug 2024	… In progress
	“£25m cash savings targeted in FY 24 and £50m for FY 25” Also stated 7 Nov 2024 · 19 May 2025 Result Not yet due.
31 Dec 2025	FY2025 Adjusted Operating Profit of £180m-£195m excluding School Bus.	29 Apr 2025	✓ Kept
	“the Group continues to expect FY 25 Adjusted Operating Profit to be in the range £180m - £195m” Also stated 24 Jun 2025 · 15 Jul 2025 Result Adjusted operating profit for 2025 was £198m, above recent guidance. “Adjusted Operating Profit of £198.0m (2024: £181.1m)”26 Feb 2026 · Unaudited results for 12 months ended 31 Dec 2025
31 Dec 2025	Reduce covenant gearing to about 2.5x at 31 December 2025.	15 Jul 2025	✗ Missed
	“FY 25 covenant gearing expected to be reduced to approximately 2.5x as at 31 December 2025” Result Covenant gearing at December 2025 was 2.7x. “Covenant gearing improved to 2.7x (2024: 2.8x), aided by proceeds from NASB disposal”26 Feb 2026 · Unaudited results for 12 months ended 31 Dec 2025
2026
30 Jun 2026	Conclude binding German rail agreements with the five PTAs by 30 June 2026.	26 Nov 2025	✓ Kept
	“Discussions with German PTAs are continuing and we will provide an update in due course” Result Revised contracts were signed on 19 June 2026. “Mobico is pleased to announce that formal contracts have been signed with the five German Public Transport Authorities in North Rhine-Westphalia and adjacent regions.”19 Jun 2026 · Signing of revised German Rail contracts
Today · 11 Oct 2026
30 Nov 2026	Complete sale of UK Bus to WMCA around November 2026.	18 Aug 2026	… In progress
	“the Transaction is expected to close around November 2026” Also stated 8 Sep 2026 Status so far Not yet due.
31 Dec 2026	Calendar 2026 Adjusted Operating Profit of £215m-£230m.	26 Feb 2026	✗ Missed · target changed
	“we expect £75m of in-year cost savings in 2026 reaching a £100m run-rate by the end of 2026” Result Guidance was raised from £195m-£210m to £215m-£230m in July 2026. 29 Jul 2026 · Audited results for 15 months ending 31 March 2026
31 Dec 2026	Small reduction in covenant gearing at 31 December 2026.	29 Jul 2026	… In progress
	“Adjusted Operating Profit guidance for calendar year 2026 increased from £195 - 210m to £215m - 230m” Status so far Not yet due.
2027
31 Dec 2027	Reduce covenant gearing to 1.5x-2.0x by 2027.	22 Apr 2024	… In progress
	“targeting net debt / covenant Adjusted EBITDA of 1.5x to 2.0x by FY 27” Also stated 21 Aug 2024 · 29 Apr 2025 Status so far Not yet due.
31 Dec 2027	Deliver £100m annualised cost savings by end 2026 and capex below £120m in 2027.	26 Feb 2026	… In progress
	“On track to deliver £100m of annualised opex savings and reduce capex to below £120m in 2027” Also stated 29 Jul 2026 Status so far Not yet due.