Gulf Keystone operates the Shaikan oil field in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. It produced about 41,600 barrels of oil a day (bopd) in 2025 and paid shareholders $50m that year. In 2026 regional war closed the field for almost four months and cut first-half output to 14,600 bopd, yet the company has no debt and still pays a dividend. Its cash flow depends on export deals set by governments.
One field, sold through government-brokered deals
Gulf Keystone describes itself as a leading independent operator and producer in Kurdistan. Its asset is the Shaikan Field, held under a production sharing contract (PSC), which gives the company a set share of oil sales to cover costs and earn a return. The field had estimated gross 2P (proven plus probable) reserves of 443 million barrels at the end of 2024. Operating costs run at roughly $4-5 a barrel.
Where the oil goes sets the price. Until March 2023 it moved by pipeline to Türkiye. From 2023 to September 2025 it was sold locally in Kurdistan at $25-30 a barrel. Since September 2025 it has gone by pipeline again under interim agreements between the international oil companies, Iraq's federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government. Large sums flow to governments: payments for 2025 were $250m. 21 Mar 2024 29 Sep 2025 25 Aug 2026 2 Apr 2026 20 Mar 2025
The pipeline closes and exports stop
The Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline closed on 25 March 2023. Gulf Keystone shut in production, suspended all field expansion and later started local sales. In 2023 gross production halved to 21,891 bopd and revenue fell from $460m to $124m. The company swung to a loss of $11.5m. It also carried $151m of overdue payments from the Kurdistan government for exports from late 2022 to March 2023.
Management cut spending to about $6m a month, covered it from local sales and stopped the ordinary dividend. The shares closed at 94.6p in February 2024. 21 Mar 2024 31 Jan 2024 13 Dec 2023
Local trucks keep the field alive, and dividends return
Local demand for Shaikan crude rebounded from February 2024. Production averaged 40,689 bopd in 2024 and free cash flow reached $65m. The company paid every overdue supplier invoice, then restarted distributions: $35m of dividends and a $10m buyback. It adopted a semi-annual dividend framework in October 2024. It paid $50m in dividends in 2025.
Local prices were low, about $27-28 a barrel. Management kept saying it would restart exports only if it got payment security, repayment of old receivables and unchanged contract terms. The shares closed 2024 at 145.6p. 20 Mar 2025 29 Aug 2024 8 Oct 2024 10 Dec 2025
Exports return in 2025
Drone attacks on nearby fields forced a precautionary shut-in on 15 July 2025, and production restarted in August. In September the company signed interim export agreements and exports restarted on 27 September 2025. Revenue invoiced for 2025 rose 28% to $193m and adjusted EBITDA reached $111m. The shares peaked at 224.5p that month.
In 2025 the company also approved water handling facilities at PF-2, a processing plant. Leased and second-hand, they are expected to add 4,000-8,000 bopd. Start-up was first guided for the beginning of 2027 on 28 August 2025. 28 Aug 2025 26 Sep 2025 29 Sep 2025 19 Mar 2026
War closes the field again in 2026
The conflict between the U.S. and Iran began at the end of February 2026. Gulf Keystone shut in on 28 February and restarted on 24 June. Output topped 45,000 bopd before a second shut-in from 19 July to 15 August. First-half production fell 67% to 14,600 bopd.
The company halved monthly cash burn and suspended most projects. It paid a $12.5m dividend in April. In February it had also added a listing on Euronext Growth Oslo, with a retail offer of about €1m. The shares fell from 213p in March to 172.6p in May. 2 Mar 2026 19 Jun 2026 20 Jul 2026 25 Aug 2026 13 Feb 2026 18 Feb 2026
Dependence on others sets the pace
The record shows what concentration risk looks like: one field, one export route, and payments set by governments. Three times in three years, a closed pipeline, a drone attack or a war cut output.
In each case the company cut costs quickly and kept the balance sheet debt-free. Cash has still fallen, from $102m at the end of 2024 to $61m at 30 June 2026. The dividend per half-year has shrunk from $25m to $12.5m to $10m.
Higher export prices do not yet mean cash. In the first half of 2026 the invoiced price was $83.5 a barrel, but cash received was about $30. The gap sits as a top-up receivable. Because of accounting limits on past receivables, IFRS revenue was $58m against $83m invoiced. 25 Aug 2026 20 Mar 2025
A steady team, with a lost chair
Jon Harris has been chief executive throughout. Chair Martin Angle died in September 2024, and deputy chair David Thomas became permanent chair in October. Gabriel Papineau-Legris took over as finance chief in June 2024. Two independent directors joined in October 2024.
The record on stated targets is mixed. The 2024 cost run-rate came in at $6.8m a month, below the c.$7m guided. 2025 production guidance was trimmed from 40,000-45,000 bopd to 40,000-42,000 bopd, and the year ended at 41,560. In January 2026 the company said drilling would restart later in 2026 and guided 2026 output to 37,000-41,000 bopd. By August 2026 a possible return to drilling had moved to 2027, conditional on full PSC entitlement. The company has not restated its 2026 production guidance.
Executive long-term awards need both absolute and relative shareholder-return targets to be met. Two senior executives each sold 50,000 shares in March 2026. Optidob BV reported a 5.17% stake that month. 20 Mar 2025 28 Aug 2025 22 Jan 2026 25 Aug 2026 23 Sep 2024 8 Oct 2024 8 Apr 2026 24 Mar 2026 16 Mar 2026
Back producing, still short of full export prices
Production restarted on 16 August 2026 and was about 45,500 bopd by mid-September. That compares with 41,303 bopd before the February shut-in. The interim export agreements have been extended to the end of January 2027. A review of invoices has concluded, and the company expects full PSC entitlement. It is working to secure extra shipments, called liftings, to settle the price gap since September 2025.
Cash was $63.5m on 24 August with no debt. A $10m dividend is due on 28 September 2026. The latest close is 197.6p on 9 October 2026. 25 Aug 2026 15 Sep 2026 25 Aug 2026
Water handling now, drilling only if paid
Management's first aim is stable production and exports, subject to security. PF-2 water handling start-up stays on track for Q1 2027, and the company is seeking extra liftings in Q3 2026. It is discussing a revised field development plan with the Ministry of Natural Resources. The plan targets a Jurassic reservoir plateau of 85,000 bopd gross, a Triassic test, and an end to routine gas flaring.
Growth depends on full entitlement and on whether the export agreements are extended beyond January 2027. The company has not said what happens if they lapse. 25 Aug 2026
“Achieving full PSC entitlement for export sales at international prices would provide strong foundations for a return to field development.” 25 Aug 2026
Written by AI from Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd Com Shs's own announcements since Oct 2023 · every paragraph links to its sources