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2023 Year-End Reserves and Operations Update

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CALGARY, March 28, 2024 - Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL; TSXV: AXL) is pleased to announce the results of its 2023 year-end reserves evaluation by Boury Global Energy Consultants Ltd. ("BouryGEC") and an operations update.

All reserves volume figures stated below are on a Working Interest Gross Reserve basis. Currency amounts are in United States dollars (unless otherwise indicated) and comparisons refer to December 31, 2022.

Highlights

Proved ("1P") reserves:

o Increased by 57% to 5.29 million barrels of oil equivalent ("MMboe"), driven principally through the discovery of the Carrizales Norte field and successfully drilling the Rio Cravo Este field, both on the Tapir Block, Colombia; and

o Net present value before tax, discounted at 10% ("NPV-10") is $134.88 million ($25.51/boe) for 1P reserves.

Proved plus Probable ("2P") reserves:

o Increased by 54% to 11.8 MMboe;

o Before tax NPV-10 is $280.22 million ($23.66/boe) for 2P reserves.

Proved plus Probable plus Possible ("3P") reserves:

o Increased by 53% to 17.8 MMboe;

o Before tax NPV-10 is $445.02 million ($24.98/boe) for 3P reserves.

  • Before tax NPV-10 values have increased 133% for 1P and 120% for 2P, over year-end 2022, due to reserves growth and notwithstanding decreases in the oil price forecast used by BouryGEC at year-end 2023.
  • 2023 Proved Developed Producing ("PDP") reserves decreased by 5.9% to 1.23 MMboe from 1.31 MMboe in 2022. This is mainly due to the Capella field being temporarily shut down. Nonetheless, PDP reserves represent 23% of 1P reserves, reflecting an attractive ratio of base production to low-risk drilling targets;
  • Before tax NPV-10 per share of US$0.47/share, US$0.98/share, and US$1.56/share for 1P, 2P, and 3P reserve categories, respectively;
  • Find and Develop cost of US$5.41/boe, US$2.42/boe, and US$1.61/boe for 1P, 2P, and 3P reserve categories, respectively;
  • Reserves recycle ratio is at good levels of 5.1 for 1P, 9.2 for 2P and 12.9 for 3P; and
  • The post tax NPVs set out in the BouryGEC report reflect changes in the Colombian tax regime during the year but not certain corporate tax shelters resulting from capital expenditures which do not have reserves implications, such as the Tapir 3D seismic project.

CEO Commentary

Marshall Abbott, CEO of Arrow, commented: "Our exciting growth story continues, backed by strong demand we are pleased to bring forward further material reserve increases from our extensive acreage in Colombia. Arrow delivered significant increases in volumes and pre-tax values of 1P, 2P and 3P reserves in 2023, due to the Carbonera and Ubaque discoveries at Carrizales Norte and successfully drilling at Rio Cravo Este, which exceeded expectations. Reserves replacement ratios amounted to 343% 1P and 624% 2P. We are pleased with the results of the BouryGEC reserves evaluation, which reinforces the significant value of our Colombian and Canadian assets.

The BouryGEC 2023 report does not take into account the current drilling campaign at Carrizales Norte where CN-5, CN-6 and CN-7, drilled in Q1 2024, are in various phases of development. CN-8 will spud within the next few weeks to test a material extension to the north of the existing Carrizales Norte development. Given the encouraging results to date, we expect further reclassifications and increases in reserves.

Furthermore, the imminent drilling of the Carrizales Norte horizontal wells into the thick Ubaque reservoir, if successful, is expected to result in a step change in production and lead to booking of substantial additional reserves.

Arrow's prospect inventory is multifaceted and supports the hydrocarbon density of the Tapir block in the fertile Llanos Basin. We look forward to a successful drilling campaign on a fully funded $45MM capital budget that is weighted towards infill and development wells".

2023 Year-End Reserves Summary

Management has presented below a summary of Arrow's reserves as at December 31, 2023, on a working interest gross reserves basis, which have been estimated by BouryGEC, an independent qualified reserves evaluator, in a reserves report with an effective date of December 31, 2023. The figures in the following tables have been prepared in accordance with the standards contained in the most recent publication of the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (the "COGEH") and the reserves definitions contained in National Instrument 51-101 - Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities ("NI 51-101"). In addition to the summary information disclosed in this announcement, more detailed information will be included in Arrow's annual reserves evaluation for the year ended December 31, 2023 to be filed on SEDAR (www.sedar.com) and posted on Arrow's website (www.arrowexploration.ca).

Brent Crude Oil Price and AECO Gas Price Forecasts in BouryGEC Reserves Evaluation

Year-End Forecast:2024202520262027202820292030
Brent (US$/bbl) - Dec. 31, 2023$78.00$80.00$81.00$82.50$84.50$85.50$87.21
AECO-C Spot (C$/MMbtu)C$2.08C$3.30C$4.27C$4.34C$4.30C$4.42C$4.53

Year-End Working Interest Gross Reserves - Breakdown by Category and Country (Mboe)

20232022Change% Change
Proved developed producing1,2391,318(80)-6%
- Colombia assets (core)1011665
- Colombia assets (non-core)0178
- Canada assets228475
Proved developed non-producing714266882646%
- Colombia assets (core)5030
- Colombia assets (non-core)21126
- Canada assets00
Proved undeveloped3,3392,032130764%
- Colombia assets (core)1,757453
- Colombia assets (non-core)1,5821,579
- Canada assets00
Total Proved5,2923,376191557%
Probable6,5554,315224152%
- Colombia assets (core)3,2921,003
- Colombia assets (non-core)2,7622,765
- Canada assets501546
Total Proved plus Probable11,8477,692415654%
Possible5,9723,989198350%
- Colombia assets (core)4,3492,224
- Colombia assets (non-core)1,4351,513
- Canada assets174252
Total Proved plus Probable & Possible17,80 511,680613953%
  • "Core" assets include Arrow's share of reserves in the Tapir Block (including Mateguafa) and the Santa Isabel Block (Oso Pardo). Arrow's 50% interest in the Tapir Block is contingent on the assignment by Ecopetrol SA of such interest to Arrow. 1P Reserves relate to the Tapir license to 2028, 2P reserves relate to the Tapir license to 2033 and 3P reserves relates to the Tapier license to 2038.
  • "Non-core" assets include the Ombu Block (which includes the Capella Field)
  • "Canada" assets include Fir and Pepper

Year-End Net Present Value at 10% - Before Tax ($ Thousands)

Category20232022% Change
Proved
Developed Producing46,02132,09243%
Non-Producing16,5443574537%
Undeveloped72,31025,458184%
Total Proved134,87557,906133%
Probable145,34869,440109%
Total Proved plus Probable280,223127,346120%
Possible164,79378,471110%
Total Proved plus Probable & Possible445,016205,817116%

Year-End Net Present Value at 10% - After Tax ($ Thousands)

Category20232022% Change
Proved
Developed Producing34,25519,50976%
Non-Producing11,1372694040%
Undeveloped33,2709,092266%
Total Proved78,66228,871172%
Probable73,11328,618155%
Total Proved plus Probable151,77557,489164%
Possible85,32332,03375%
Total Proved plus Probable & Possible2 37,09889,522132%
Forecast Revenues and Costs - Undiscounted ($ millions)
CategoryRevenue (3)RoyaltiesOperating Cost (2)DCAbandonment & ReclamationBT Future Net Revenue (1)Income TaxesAT Future Net Revenue (1)
Total Proved295.930.251.046.06.4162.365.796.6
Total Proved plus Probable657.468.7110.291.09.6378.0166.2211.7
Total Proved plus Probable & Possible1,052.8116.8173.2104.811.5646.5290.4356.0
  • BT = Before Taxes and AT = After Taxes
  • Operating Cost less processing and other income
  • Revenue includes Petrolco Income

2023 Year-End Working Interest Gross Reserves Reconciliation (Mboe)

Total ProvedTotal Proved plus ProbableTotal Proved plus Probable & Possible
31-Dec-223,3767,69211,680
Technical Revisions280548777115
Economic Factors-9771-198
Production-792-792-792
31-Dec-235,29211,84717,805

Operations Update

CN-5

The CN-5 well was spud on February 8, 2024, and reached target depth on February 14, 2024. CN-5 was the first well drilled into the west Carrizales Norte field and results from this well have confirmed the productive potential of the multi-pool field. The well was drilled to a total measured depth of 9,205 feet (8,715 feet true vertical depth) and encountered a thick hydrocarbon-bearing interval in the Ubaque formation.

Arrow completed the final test on the CN-5 well in the Ubaque formation which has approximately 45 feet of net oil pay. The pay zone is a clean sandstone exhibiting consistent 25% porosity (permeability of 5 to 6 Darcies) and high resistivities. An electric submersible pump (ESP) has been inserted in the well after perforating.

The well was perforated in the top 12 feet of the Ubaque formation and initial flow rates were very encouraging.

The oil from the CN-5 well has an API gravity of 13.6°. The ESP is being restricted at the lowest setting of 30Hz with a choke size of 48/128 to properly evaluate the water cut. Currently, the well is being produced at an average rate of 350 BOPD gross (175 BOPD net) with a water cut of 8%.

The testing results indicate the well is capable of higher rates and the longer term flow rate will be determined in the first weeks of production. Gradual production ramp up is intended to prevent premature water breakthrough and adds to ultimate oil recovery.

CN-6

The Company spud the CN-6 well on February 26, completed it in the Carbonera C7 formation, and has been put into production. The well penetrated a 16 ft pay zone in a high quality upper Carbonera C7 sand, with a porosity of 27%. The well is currently flowing, with an ESP, at 220 BOPD gross (110 BOPD net) of 33.2° API gravity. Water cut for the CN-6 well tested at 71%. As reservoir stewards, the Company will conservatively produce at rates that allow for maximum oil recoveries and optimal production rates.

The Ubaque and Gacheta formation were not tested in the CN-6 well.

CN-7 and Pads Construction

CN-7 was spud on March 19 and has reached total depth of 9,847 feet. Well logs are very encouraging and confirm pay zones in the Carbonera, Gacheta and Ubaque formations. The well will be put on-stream in the next few weeks. The rig will then be skidded 25 meters to the CN-8 location which is targeting a material extension northward in the Carbonera C-7, Gacheta and Ubaque reservoirs.

Construction continues on the CN B Pad (horizontal pad) and the Baquiano pad. The CN B pad is now ready to receive a drilling rig. Arrow expects the Baquiano pad will be ready in April with the expectation that it will spud in Q3 2024.

Arrow expects to spud the first horizontal well from the CN B Pad in Q2 2024 to further develop the Ubaque reservoir in the Carrizales Norte field. Current projections are that horizontal wells will take approximately one month to drill and put on production.

Oso Pardo

The Company has decided to defer its stimulation plans in the Oso Pardo wells to prioritize time and resources in the Tapir drilling program. Further updates will be provided when available.

Production and Cash Balance

The Company's current production is approximately 2,900 boe/d. The company has experienced some minor production disruptions caused by drilling operations at the CN field development and water disposal requirements at the RCE field. These minor disruptions are expected to be resolved quickly.

The Capella field, where Arrow has a non-operated 10% interest producing net approximately 280 BOPD, continues to be offline. After discussions with the Operator, the Company hopes that partial production will resume in Q3, 2024.

Arrow currently has approximately $12 million cash in the bank and no debt. The Company expects that the remainder of the 2024 capital program will be funded by cash on hand and operating cash flow.

About Arrow Exploration Corp.

Arrow Exploration Corp. (operating in Colombia via a branch of its 100% owned subsidiary Carrao Energy S.A.) is a publicly traded company with a portfolio of premier Colombian oil assets that are under-exploited, under-explored and offer high potential growth. The Company's business plan is to expand oil production from some of Colombia's most active basins, including the Llanos, Middle Magdalena Valley (MMV) and Putumayo Basin. The asset base is predominantly operated with high working interests, and the Brent-linked light oil pricing exposure combines with low royalties to yield attractive potential operating margins. Arrow's 50% interest in the Tapir Block is contingent on the assignment by Ecopetrol SA of such interest to Arrow. Arrow's seasoned team is led by a hands-on executive team supported by an experienced board. Arrow is listed on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange and on TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol "AXL".

Reserves Categories

Glossary

Bbl/d: Barrels per day

$/Bbl: Dollars per barrel

Mcf/d: Thousand cubic feet of gas per day

$/Mcf: Dollars per thousand cubic feet of gas

Boe/d: Barrels of oil equivalent per day

$/Boe: Dollars per barrel of oil equivalent

PDP: Proved Developed Producing

1P: Proved Reserves

2P: Proved plus Probable Reserves

3P: Proved plus Probable plus Possible Reserves

Mboe: Thousands of barrel of oil equivalent

MMbtu: Millions btu

MMboe: Millions of barrels of oil equivalent

Mbtu: Thousands btu

Mboe: Thousands of barrels of oil equivalent

Working Interest Gross Reserves: The reserves attributable to the Company's license working interest pre-taxes and royalties

Cleaned text: letterheads, contacts and legal notices removed. View the original announcement ↗ · Company filings. Not investment advice.

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