Situations
Where money or control changes hands at a UK small cap – takeovers, disposals, capital returns, activists, stake building, refinancings. Each one followed from the first announcement to the outcome.
Results and guidance ahead of or below expectations, upgrades and profit warnings.
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Profit outlook Robinson RBN£19m new
2026 profit guidance
Guidance was lowered in December 2025 and on 20 August 2026 to £2.2m-£2.6m after Middle East cost pressure. On 25 September the Board said 2026 was in line, but a £3.3m-revenue contract would not be renewed.
Direction below expectations / warningReaction on the day −8%In 12 months 1 statement in the same directionNext 2026 results and FY2027 mitigation update 4 Mar · in 129 days -
Profit outlook Camellia CAM£135m
Full-year trading outlook
On 26 Aug Kakuzi flagged 2026 net earnings at least 25% lower, and the H1 results (3 Sep) added El Nino as a headwind.
Direction below expectations / warningReaction on the day −7%In 12 months 2 statements in the same directionNext final 2026 trading result, shaped by Q4 phasing -
Profit outlook Serabi Gold SRB£137m new
Profit warning
Serabi Gold issued a profit warning on 21 Oct 2026; the shares moved −11% on the day.
Stage Profit warningDirection below expectations / warningReaction on the day −11%In 12 months 1 statement in the same direction -
Profit outlook Genuit Group GEN£640m new
Subdued market and profit guidance
Since Nov 2025 profit guidance has tracked a subdued market. In May 2026 FY26 was guided to the lower end of the £94.7m-£105.5m range, and on 11 Aug H1 came in line.
Direction below expectations / warningReaction on the day −12%In 12 months 1 statement in the same directionNext FY26 results with 2027 outlook 1 Mar · in 126 days -
Profit outlook Iofina IOF£90m new
Results below expectations
Iofina said it is trading below expectations on 16 Oct 2026; the shares moved −7% on the day.
Stage Below expectationsDirection below expectations / warningReaction on the day −7%In 12 months 1 statement in the same direction -
Profit outlook Thor Explorations Ltd THX£330m new
Profit warning
Thor Explorations Ltd issued a profit warning on 14 Oct 2026; the shares moved −9% on the day.
Stage Profit warningDirection below expectations / warningReaction on the day −9%In 12 months 1 statement in the same direction -
Profit outlook Caledonia Mining Corporation CMCL£310m
Profit warning
Caledonia Mining Corporation issued a profit warning on 9 Oct 2026; the shares moved −4% on the day. It is the second such statement in 12 months.
Direction below expectations / warningReaction on the day −4%In 12 months 2 statements in the same direction -
Profit outlook Oxford Metrics OMG£39m
FY26 guidance cut
On 17 June 2026 FY26 revenue guidance of c.£56m for the 15 months was confirmed. On 9 October 2026 the Board cut it to £47-51m with an Adjusted EBIT loss of £0.5-3.9m, against market expectations of £56.2m and a £3.0m profit.
Direction below expectations / warningReaction on the day −6%In 12 months 1 statement in the same directionNext Interim results for 12 months to 30 September 2026 -
Profit outlook MyCelx Technologies Corporation MYX£12m
Middle East conflict exposure
Impact on 2026 business was not assessable in May. In July several large Middle East projects were expected within six months.
Direction below expectations / warningReaction on the day −20%In 12 months 1 statement in the same directionNext Middle East purchase order award for the delayed project -
Profit outlook Celebrus Technologies CLBS£19m
New business and logo wins
The go-to-market restructure (Marketing, Sales, Customer Success) was meant to fix FY26's new business shortfall.
Direction below expectations / warningReaction on the day −40%In 12 months 2 statements in the same directionNext H1 FY27 results and presentation 8 Dec · in 43 days -
Profit outlook Tekmar Group TGP£16m
Middle East disruption to projects
The 18 June 2026 interims reported Middle East delays, higher costs and deferred Offshore Energy Services activity, with bottlenecks easing.
Direction below expectations / warningReaction on the day −6%In 12 months 1 statement in the same direction -
Profit outlook Accsys Technologies AXS£134m
Profit warning
Accsys Technologies issued a profit warning on 21 Sep 2026; the shares moved −12% on the day.
Stage Profit warningDirection below expectations / warningReaction on the day −12%In 12 months 1 statement in the same direction -
Profit outlook Craneware CRW£374m
Profit warning
Craneware issued a profit warning on 21 Sep 2026; the shares moved −26% on the day. It is the second such statement in 12 months.
Direction below expectations / warningReaction on the day −26%In 12 months 2 statements in the same direction -
Profit outlook Resolute Mining Limited RSG£1,137m
Mali supply chain and operating risk
Mali security and supply problems cut Syama Q2 output (5 June 2026) and pushed Syama to the lower end of guidance (20 August 2026).
Direction below expectations / warningReaction on the day −6%In 12 months 2 statements in the same directionNext Emulsion plant commissioning; Q4 Syama output of 45-50 koz 30 Nov · in 35 days -
Profit outlook Facilities by ADF ADF£11m
Profit warning
Facilities by ADF issued a profit warning on 16 Sep 2026; the shares moved −16% on the day.
Stage Profit warningDirection below expectations / warningReaction on the day −16%In 12 months 1 statement in the same direction -
Profit outlook CT Automotive Group CTA£14m
Key customer price dispute
CT Automotive Group issued a profit warning on 16 Sep 2026; the shares moved −30% on the day.
Direction below expectations / warningReaction on the day −30%In 12 months 1 statement in the same directionNext update market as discussions conclude and range narrows -
Profit outlook Cerillion CER£207m
Profit warning
Cerillion issued a profit warning on 14 Sep 2026; the shares moved −12% on the day.
Stage Profit warningDirection below expectations / warningReaction on the day −12%In 12 months 1 statement in the same direction -
Profit outlook Mortgage Advice Bureau (Holdings) MAB1£220m
Profit warning
Mortgage Advice Bureau issued a profit warning on 9 Sep 2026; the shares moved −20% on the day.
Stage Profit warningDirection below expectations / warningReaction on the day −20%In 12 months 1 statement in the same direction -
Profit outlook Crest Nicholson Holdings CRST£169m
Profit warning
Crest Nicholson Holdings issued a profit warning on 3 Sep 2026; the shares moved −8% on the day. It is the third such statement in 12 months.
Direction below expectations / warningReaction on the day −8%In 12 months 3 statements in the same direction -
Profit outlook Hunting HTG£585m
Middle East conflict exposure
Middle East conflict was flagged in March 2026 as a tender slippage risk with minimal 2026 profit impact expected. By 21 Aug 2026 the delay has become material: the KOC tender re-run cuts 2026 EBITDA by c.$10m.
Direction below expectations / warningReaction on the day −14%In 12 months 1 statement in the same directionNext KOC OCTG tender re-issue in Q3 2026 -
Profit outlook Ashtead Technology Holdings AT.£489m
Middle East conflict exposure
The Middle East conflict, unresolved since March 2026, has cut regional activity and pushed projects into 2027, prompting guidance cuts in July and August.
Direction below expectations / warningReaction on the day −16%In 12 months 1 statement in the same direction -
Profit outlook iFOREX Financial Trading Holdings Ltd. IFRX£32m
Profit warning
IFOREX Financial Trading Holdings Ltd. issued a profit warning on 19 Aug 2026; the shares moved −22% on the day.
Stage Profit warningDirection below expectations / warningReaction on the day −22%In 12 months 1 statement in the same direction -
Profit outlook GB Group GBG£354m
Profit warning
GB Group issued a profit warning on 14 Aug 2026; the shares moved −31% on the day.
Stage Profit warningDirection below expectations / warningReaction on the day −31%In 12 months 1 statement in the same direction -
Profit outlook CLS Holdings CLI£189m
Profit warning
CLS Holdings issued a profit warning on 4 Aug 2026; the shares moved −8% on the day.
Stage Profit warningDirection below expectations / warningReaction on the day −8%In 12 months 1 statement in the same direction -
Profit outlook Vanquis Banking Group 20 VANQ£181m
Returns guidance reset
Vanquis had guided to low double digit statutory ROTE for 2026 as recently as May 2026. At the half year it cut 2026 to low single digit, as lower Credit Card yields from new customers and cautious spending moderate returns.
Direction below expectations / warningReaction on the day −26%In 12 months 1 statement in the same directionNext FY26 results: dividend decision and ROTE delivery -
Profit outlook AB Dynamics ABDP£182m
FY26 guidance reset
On 28 July 2026 the Board cut FY26 continuing revenue guidance to £90-95m as order conversion slowed, holding the adjusted operating margin at 20%.
Direction below expectations / warningReaction on the day −30%In 12 months 1 statement in the same directionNext FY26 full-year results
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