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Update PFS Economic Study Delivers Increased NPV

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Cadence Minerals (AIM: KDNC) is pleased to announce the results from the updated economic study, the progress on the environmental applications and the ongoing development of the 67% 'Green Iron' processing flow sheet at the Amapá Ore Project ("Amapá", "Project" or "Amapá Project"). Since the end of March 2024, Cadence's total investment in the Amapá Project had increased by approximately US$0.7 million to approximately US$13.9 million, and consequently, the equity stake in the project now stands at 34.2%.

Highlights:

  • 20% increase of Post-tax Net Present Value ("NPV") to US$1.14 billion at a discount rate of 10%, with profit after tax of US$3.14 billion over the Life of Mine ("LOM").
  • 10% increase in average production after ramp-up to 5.82 million dry metric tonnes ("DMT") per annum ("Mtpa") of Fe concentrate, consisting of 4.81 Mtpa at 65.4% Fe and 1.01 Mtpa at 62% Fe concentrate.
  • A 6% decrease in Free on Board ("FOB") C1 Cash Costs to US$33.5/dmt at the port of Santana. Cost and Freight ("CFR") C1 Cash Costs US$62.2/dmt in China.
  • Improved Post-tax Internal Rate of Return from 34% to 42%.
  • The port's environmental licensing is on schedule with the studies complete and the required reports being drafted, it is due to be submitted on schedule in the current quarter of this year.
  • Testing of the 67% Fe "Green Iron" flow sheet has commenced, and results are expected by the end of September 2024.
  • If successful, the 67% flow could increase the net operating profit of the Project, at full production, from approximately US$227 million to US$324 million per year.

Cadence CEO, Kiran Morzaria, commented: "On belhaf of our Board, I am thrilled with the positive outcomes from the updated economic study at the Amapá Ore Project, along with further he significant progress made at Amapá. The increased net present value of US$1.145 billion and the enhanced post-tax internal rate of return demonstrate substantial improvements to the Project's already robust economics.

The ongoing development of the 67% 'Green Iron' processing flow sheet and the Project's 100% renewable power source exemplify our commitment to propelling Amapa forward to meet the growing demand for low-carbon iron ore and steel, while at the same time demonstrating a potential 43% uplift in projected annual net operating profit.

We are optimistic about the potential of the Amapá Iron Ore Project and look forward to providing further updates on our progress in the future."

Updated PFS-level economic study

In March this year, the Amapa Project announced the results of the optimisation study, which delivered material capital savings to the Project. Based on these results, the Amapa Project carried out an updated PFS-level economic study.

Updated Mining Schedule

As part of the optimisation study completed in March 2024, the engineering consultants identified higher availability at the processing plant, which increased the annual run-of-mine feed rate to the processing plant. As a result of this, it was necessary to re-examine the mining and other related engineering disciplines, and in particular, the mine schedule had to be recalculated to optimise the project's NPV.

A life of mine production plan was scheduled using the Deswik.Blend® Scheduler Optimizer. The solids used in the mine scheduling were based on the final pit design, with an SMU (Selective Mining Unit) of 100 m x 200 m x 4 m. The life of mine schedule allows for 15 years of production with the current economic values and cut-off of 25% Fe. The resultant life of mine strip ratio is approximately 0.4:1 (tonnes waste: tonnes ore) and an average ore mine delivered to the plant of 13 million metric tonnes per annum.

Project Financial Analysis

An updated PFS financial model, which included the updated mining schedule, lower capex, and lower operational costs, was developed to evaluate the project's economics. All other aspects of the financial analysis remained the same as per the PFS published in January 2023, including the iron ore concentrate price. Which was a long-term average price for 62% iron ore concentrate of US$95/dmt and US$118.8/dmt for 65.4% iron ore concentrate, both quoted on a Cost and Freight ("CFR") basis. As of 8 July 2024 the 62% iron ore concentrate price was US$108.75/dmt and 65% iron ore fines was US$129/dmt. Summary results from the financial model outputs are presented in the tables below, including financial analysis. The financial model considers 100% equity funding for the Project, although, in reality, the financing of the Project will be a mix of debt and equity. However, the existing obligations in terms of principal repayment and current interest liabilities payable have been included in the financial model. A summary of the key financial information is presented below, alongside the 2022 PFS data.

Table 1.1 Key Project Metrics (100% project basis)

MetricUnit2022 PFS Data2024 PFS Data
Total ore feed to the plantMt (dry)176.88176.93
Life of MineYears1615
Fe grade of ore feed to the plant%39.3439.34
Recovery%76.2776.27
62.0% iron ore concentrate productionMtpa0.890.95
65.4% iron ore concentrate productionMtpa4.234.51
C1 Cash Costs FOB *US$/dmt35.5333.50
C1 Cash Costs CFR **US$/dmt64.2352.20
Pre-Production capital investment***US$M399343
Sustaining capital investment over LOM****US$M245245
Post-tax NPV (10%)US$M9491,145
Post-tax IRR%3442
Project paybackYears44
Total profit after tax (net operating profit)US$B2.963.14
*Means operating cash costs, including mining, processing, geology, OHSE, rail, port and site G&A, divided by the tonnes of iron ore concentrate produced. It excludes royalties and is quoted on a FOB basis (excluding shipping to the customer).
**Means the same as C1 Cash Costs FOB; however, it includes shipping to the customer in China (CFR).
***Includes direct tax credit rebate over 48 months
****Includes both sustaining CAPEX and deferred capital expenditure, specifically, improvements to the railway and the installation of conveyor belt and mine site to rail load out

Table 1.2 FOB and CFR average cash cost per tonne of dry product over the LOM

Cash Cost Per DisciplinePFS 2022PFS 2024
US$/dmtUS$/dmt
Mine17.0516.73
TSF0.080.08
Beneficiation Plant, Road / Conveyor Transfer & Rail Loading12.4310.94
Rail Freight2.432.43
Port1.551.55
G & A (5% total cost)1.991.77
FOB Cash Costs35.5333.50
Marine Logistics28.7028.70
CFR Cash Costs64.2362.20

Table 1.3 Summary of key financial information for the Project.

Item Over Life of MineUnit2022 PFS Data2024 PFS Data
Gross revenueUS$M9,3879,389
Freight (Maine Logistics)US$M(2,350)(2,351)
Net RevenueUS$M7,0377,038
Operating costsUS$M(2,910)(2,744)
Royalties and taxes (excluding income tax)US$M(373)(373)
EBITDAUS$M3,7543,922
EBITUS$M3,3153,547
Net Taxes and InterestUS$M(355)(390)
Net Operating ProfitUS$M2,9603,144
Initial, Sustaining capital costs & repaymentsUS$M(727)(645)
Free Cash FlowUS$M2,6722,874
ItemUnit2022 PFS Data2024 PFS Data
LOMYears1615
Discount rate%1010
NPVUS$M9491,145
IRR%3442
Project PaybackYears44

Licensing

As announced in September 2023, Amapá Project Management had agreed with the Amapá State Environmental Agency ("SEMA") to an expedited environmental process, given the Project had previously been granted all its Operational Licenses ("LO").

SEMA is reviewing the application for the Installation License ("LI") for the mine and railway, which were submitted in March 2024. The the LI application for the wholly-owned port are nearing completion, with the final reports due for submission in the current quarter. Our understanding from SEMA is that based on the current timeline, the LI will be granted by the end of 2024. The LI allows the rehabilitation and construction of the Amapá Project, and once this is completed, the LO is granted, and mining operations can commence.

67% 'Green Iron' Flowsheet

The Amapá Project Management team continues to develop the 'green iron' flowsheet. Part of the work entails carrying out a mineralogical and multi-elemental analysis of run-of-mine ore, concentrate, and tailings and testing the full circuit at a pilot-scale level.

To this end, the Project has completed a life-of-mine sampling programme, collecting approximately two tonnes of material, which was shipped to our independent consultant engineers in March. The samples were shipped and cleared Chinese customs in late June. The samples have been checked and reconciled, and flow sheet testing results are expected by the end of the current quarter.

Assuming the testing confirms the flow sheet, we will update the project economics to reflect the increased revenue and any capital expenditure changes and update the market with these figures.

Project Financing

In October 2023, Cadence announced a memorandum of understanding ("MOU") to obtain debt financing for the Project. More information can be found in the announcement here. The MOU remains in place and our primary focus has been on securing the equity needed for the Project's construction.

We have signed several non-disclosure agreements in this regard, and interested parties have been and will be conducting technical site visits as part of their due diligence. The Project will need to have the necessary equity and debt in place to start construction. We will inform the markets if any definite agreements are made. In the meantime, Cadence plans to fund ongoing work, including the advancement of the 67% flow sheet, licensing, maintenance of the tailings storage facility, and general working capital for the Project.

Cautionary and Forward-Looking Statements

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